INTERPRETING THE WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 29, 2014 CHRONICLE ARTICLE:
Katy ISD to reach 84,000 students by 2019, says demographics study
Posted on October 28, 2014 in the Houston Chronicle | By Leah Binkovitz
Katy ISD has been growing for some 25 years. But this year, said Pat Guseman, president of Population and Survey Analysts, “has been the most exciting in regard to growth.” The new demographics report released this week confirms not only the growth experienced in recent years but also projects another banner year for the district that added more students than any other in the Houston area.
Using employment and housing data, the firm, which works with the top 10 fastest growing districts in the state, created a picture of growth driven by young families, new apartment units and a change in drainage agreements that would open up even more development in the northwest corner of the district.
In the past year alone, the district added some 2,865 students and passed the 70,000 mark this fall. Despite the rapid growth and the large size of the district, said Guseman, it remained one of the top performing on state tests. Compared to other large districts, though, Katy tends to have both a higher median income and education attainment level, which Guseman said can help explain the high test scores.
It’s also part of the reason more families are moving in. When broken out by grade, the strongest growth occurred at the kindergarten level, which grew by 8.4 percent last year. “You’re really leaping forward with elementary students,” said Guseman. According to this year’s projections, the district’s elementary student population could reach 41,982 by 2019, almost half of the total district population projected for that year.
“It’s so important to watch those early grades,” said Guseman, “they determine the future.”
Read more here:
http://blog.chron.com/katy/2014/10/katy-isd-to-reach-84000-students-by-2019-says-demographics-study/MY RESPONSE TO THIS ARTICLE By Mary McGarr
First thing to notice is that while the superintendent has been proclaiming that KISD has way over 3,000 new students this year, Ms. Binkovitz points out that the District's own "on retainer demographic consultant," Ms. Guseman, is calling him a liar by pointing out that there are only 2,865 new students this fall! That's interesting to note all by itself! Who knows which of them is correct! Also, the District's growth has been declining since 2008 until just this year, but no one wants to mention that.
But it gets better...
Ms. Guseman evidently has a short memory as she suggests that this year "has been the most exciting in regard to growth." Let me be the first to remind Ms. Guseman that KISD grew by 3,596 students from 2005 to 2006! Since we only had 44,212 students in 2005 to start with, I would say THAT growth was the "most exciting" year we've had (if one can call growth that is orchestrated by the school district and its PAC donating developers "exciting."
As for remaining "one of the top performing [districts] on state tests," I would point out that since the passing standard for that "state test" (the STAAR Test) is only at 37% (a level set by the Texas Education Agency so that districts like KISD can crow about nothing), perhaps parents should be irate instead of thinking about being "one of the top performing" [school districts] on a standard that is actually failing! KISD students performed so poorly because KISD refused to change their curriculum to match the new TEKS approved by our Texas State Board of Education. It is illegal for KISD not to have complied, but there is no one willing to enforce that law.
I have to laugh at the suggestion that "Katy tending to have a ... higher education attainment level" means anything at all. When 67% of the people who live in the Cinco Ranch have at least a Bachelor's Degree and yet only 44% per cent of their children who graduate from Cinco Ranch High School can get a four year degree from any Texas private or public college or university in six (6) years or less, I would suggest that there is a problem with this school district and the education that it is (not) delivering. (My source for those figures is from the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board). (Read about it on my web site at www.marymcgarr.com )
I would also ask, "What 'high test scores' is Ms. Guseman talking about?' There are none.
Then let's look at those "kindergartners" that the reporter mentions. We had 3,764 of them in August of 2008. By the 3rd grade in August 31, 2011, there are 4,255 of those same students plus move-ins enrolled. Considering that the entire District grew by about 6,500 in those years, that growth doesn't seem disproportionate to me. Consider as well all the schools that were built in those years --three elementaries between 2008 and 2011; they should have been accommodated easily. Raising an issue about the number of kindergarten students is just be an alarmist.
A more interesting number is looking at the students who were in the 9th grade in September 7, 2010: there were 4,849 of them. However by May 15, 2014 (their senior year), there were only 4,345 of them left! Considering that the district was "growing by leaps and bounds," and that there were probably more of them moving in during the 9th, 10th and 11th grades (as well as some moving out), what do you suppose happened to the base of 504 students that were there in the 9th grade???!!! That's a huge chunk of students to go missing! Drop outs in KISD are another problem that never gets discussed.
Think that decline is the result of the poor education students are receiving in Katy ISD? Does it have anything at all to do with the fact that they use a ridiculous method to teach reading with the end result that about 40% of KISD students cannot read at all so when they get to the 12th grade they drop out like flies?
As for the "84,000 students that will be here by 2019," please consider that this same demographer in 2006 claimed there would be 83,418 in 2015! Think we'll get there by next fall? Had we built schools based on her predictions, we'd be sitting on more capacity than we already have.
And speaking of capacity, does anyone else wonder why the District is asking for 25 new portables as part of the bond package at a cost of $125,000 each when they already have 314 of them (as of last month) which is 40 more than they had last year?
To come up with my total number of portable spaces, I calculated two 22 student classrooms in each portable located at an elementary school and two 30 student classrooms in each portable located at a secondary school--with a lot of them sitting empty or being used for things for which they should not be used. Using those calculations I find that there are 18,980 extra spaces for students in the portables that are already bought and which are sitting around at various schools. That is an astounding number that no one from the administration has ever even mentioned!
My questions are, why do we need more portables if they're going to build all those schools, why are the portables not counted in the capacity of the school district, why aren't they moved to locations where they are needed, why do parents feel like their children cannot learn in a portable, and why do people who move to a "fast growth school district" if that is indeed what it is, expect the rest of us to provide them with an elementary school, a junior high and a high school within walking distance of their new home? How arrogant that is.
MY neighborhood's children had to go to three junior high schools when we all moved here because in those days KISD built schools when there were enough students to fill them. The kids didn't mind as they were with their neighborhood friends no matter where they had to go. Such a policy also makes much more economic sense and doesn't deliberately drive population growth and help out developers at taxpayer expense.
Any of you who moved here for the great schools are not looking at the facts, and if you're looking for "facts" in the Chronicle or the neighborhood newspapers, you're not going to find them there.