KATY DISTRICT ENROLLMENT TO TOP 77,000 BY 2012
Student Influx Drives Search for New School Sites
THIS WEEK section of the Houston Chronicle
By Helen Eriksen
November 4, 2004
KATY DISTRICT ENROLLMENT TO TOP 77,000 IN 8 YEARS
The Katy school district is growing faster than surrounding districts, said demographer Pat Guseman, but predicting where that growth will occur could pose a challenge. [Actually Ft Bend and Cy Fair and Lamar Consolidated were also growing fast. If KISD was "ahead in growth" it was only by a hair. MM]
However, that is what the district must accomplish to acquire land for future school sites before it becomes too costly or unavailable, said Guseman of the College Station based Population and Survey Analysts company.
[Katy ISD has never been able to predict, even with Guseman's help, where the district growth will be with any certainty. Actually they buy land not by consulting demographic statistics but by listening to Fred Fargo, a commercial realtor, who brings them properties in my opinion that HE would like to sell! Check the bills of sale if you don't believe me and notice the names thereon. MM]The Katy district enrollment swelled last year by 7.12 percent, and 5 percent to 6 percent growth is projected each year to 2014.
[Actually there was 6.04% growth from 2003-2004 to 2004-2005. There was 8.1% growth from 2004-2005 to 2005-2006. Looks like PASA missed the percentage number BOTH years!]Guseman, whose advice has panned out in the past on where and how much growth would occur, told Katy Independent School District officials to brace for the construction of 12 new elementary schools, five junior highs and at least one new high school between 2006 and 2012.
[Actually Guseman's numbers haven't panned out, ever. In 2006 she predicted there would be 83,418 students in 2015, but there were only 72,709. If the district built schools based on her numbers they would have built schools for 10,709 students that didn't show up! That's at least nine elementary schools. MM]The district opened six new schools this year, including one high school, one junior high and four elementaries.
By 2014, the district expects enrollment to exceed 77,000, [and yet here it is 2017 and we're still not up to 77,000!] and much of the anticipated growth is concentrated in its southwest region. That region is identified as a hot spot by Guseman and will require 13 new schools by 2012.
[Actually the hot spot turned out to be the north side and apartment construction everywhere. Wouldn't you think she might have spotted that eventuality ten years ago? MM]The subdivisions with the most construction activity -- Cinco Ranch, Stella Ranch and Firethorne - are critical to school facility planning, Guseman said.
[Anyone ever hear of "Stella Ranch"? Maybe that's where all those new students are! MM]In the northern part of the district, bustling multifamily residential development is predicted to be an important factor for building new schools, especially in Mayde Creek Elementary's attendance zone.
[There are lots of new SINGLE family residences in the Mayde Creek area, but how many apartments are there?MM]Since some facilities in the north are built on a smaller scale than those in the south, excess enrollment is not as easy to accommodate.
[Anyone care to explain what is meant by this statement? Was Ms. Guseman talking about houses being smaller on the north side? Is she saying that those houses have more people in them? How about schools that are built on the north side? Same thing? It would really be of interest to know what she's claiming here. MM]The district will continue its practice of housing some pupils in portable classrooms to alleviate crowding and would consider additions of permanent classroom space to respond to fluctuations in enrollment while new schools are being constructed, Guseman said.
[This is a good one! Is Guseman proposing that in addition to portables the district should just build classrooms sitting out on the parking lot to take care of temporary growth? What do we do with them after a new school is built and the students are gone? How would that be better than portables? Actually we don't move portables after they are needed either. This is questionable mindless thinking. MM]The district has 43 campuses, including 26 elementary schools, 10 junior highs, five high schools, a career technology center and an alternative center accommodating a total of 44,259 students.
By 2014, the district likely would add 12 elementary schools, five junior highs and two high schools, including Seven Lakes High, which is scheduled to open in 2005 at 9251 South Fry Road.
Peter McElwain, school district architect, said he works continuously with the district demographer consultant to locate new sites before roadways are extended and improved, he said.
[Actually Mr. McElwain dropped the ball on this one. The District has had to add additional costs to the second stadium fiasco because plans were not undertaken with the County (mostly for turn lanes) (according to Commissioner Radack) and so extra amounts are being spent by the district and the county to accommodate these additional tweaks to the road. The "district and the county" would also be YOU THE TAXPAYER, so thanks Mr. McElwain. MM]While the district is actively pursuing sites for future schools, it already has acquired some of the needed land.
[This paragraph is posted under School Land elsewhere on this site: And then there’s the Pine Forest site that the year before it was purchased for $1,867,591.44 was on the tax rolls and appraised for $790,410. It’s only 25 acres—too big for an elementary school and too small for a junior high school. Maybe it’s going to be another bus barn or something. There is a small subdivision of older (35 to 40 years old) homes nearby, but no prospect of any new homes going in at that location. I’m guessing that these are the homes from which the students are bused to Wolfe Elementary. Perhaps someone was jumping the gun about what was going to happen at Wolfe. We can only guess about that, as no one ever tells the public anything! I drove by this site—you can too! Go north on Hiway 6, and turn left on Pine Forest Drive. You’ll miss the location if you are too busy looking at the abandoned real estate all around it. Don’t go at night! It certainly isn’t a very good place for a school, in my opinion. So why did our school board pay 1.1 million dollars more than the property was worth? Again I have to wonder about how someone gets the Board to buy land like this. MM]For example, property has been purchased for the construction of High School 7, scheduled to open in 2011 northeast of Seven Lakes High, McElwain said.
[Actually 131.3381 acres of the land needed for Tompkins High School was purchased in 1983 not 2005, so Mr. McElwain was trying to mislead the reporter here. The part purchased in 2005 was for a new stadium, and we all know what happened with that. Or do we? MM]The district has allocated $5.9 million of the $315 million bond election for land acquisition, and $2 million is left, he said. If this money runs out, McElwain said he is prepared to go to the board to seek other funding sources if they are needed to purchase more land.
[Actually the school district passed yet another bond the very next year, and even though the district allocated a stipulated amount for land purchases, the district exceeded that amount very quickly. MM]WoodCreek Reserve, at Kingsland Boulevard and FM 1463, has adequate space to build an elementary school and a junior high.
[It also had plenty of land to put 17 (maybe 22) portable buildings because the school board refused to rezone schools. MM]The district previously bought land to build an elementary school south of Fry and west of the Grand Parkway. It owns 13 acres near Morton Ranch Junior High, on which it plans to build an elementary school.
The district soon will take construction bids, for Elementary School 27, which will open in 2006, east of Beckendorf Junior High on Fry Road.
Interviews with city of Katy and Fort Bend, Harris and Waller county planners and engineers, as well as commercial realtors and developers, are under way to decide where school sites are needed and to begin a proactive search for land.
"We are trying to stay ahead of the game, but it's becoming increasingly difficult to find viable pieces of property," Superintendent Leonard Merrell said.
Guseman said, "It's tricky because you don't want to build schools ahead of time, and you don't want schools to be over or underutilized." [Actually KISD DOES build schools ahead of time, following it's policy of "if you build it, they will come" and helping friendly developers and architects sell houses in their new subdivisions. In return some of these feeders at the public trough contribute to some board member's campaign funds. MM]
She said it's an ongoing struggle to anticipate where schools will be needed and best located to minimize transferring students between schools. [Actually, it's not hard. Just find the newest planned subdivision and pick a spot in the middle of it. MM]
Guseman added that Katy has an excellent track record for the last 10 years in selecting sites to minimize student reassignment. However, it is inevitable that some attendance zones would be rezoned with the opening of new schools, she said.
[To rezone students is the most economical means of taking care of growth. However, it is political suicide to do what should be done in a growing school district. If the Board had a "rezoning board policy," they could avoid the recriminations by then having a legal cause for their actions. When they don't do that one has to wonder how dumb they really are. MM] [Since I wrote this line, the District HAS established a rezoning policy. Guess they do read my stuff!MM]In July, trustees approved purchasing 33 acres for about $1.5 million at the southwest corner of North Fry Road and Westlake Place Drive intersection (between Morton and Franz Roads), to be used for the construction of an elementary school. The district has not closed the deal, yet, McElwain said.
Merrell said the district only needed 13 acres, but the seller would not subdivide the property and the remaining acreage will be sold.
[But has it been sold? And who bought it and for how much? I guarantee the public will never know. MM]Forecasts show that by 2014, Cinco Ranch area Kilpatrick Elementary would have 6,715 pupils in its attendance zone, enough pupils to fill 6 1/2 schools. Katy Elementary would reach 3,040 pupils and King would increase to 2,361. The junior high scenario shows Beckendorf predicted to see 4,761 students by 2014, Katy, 2,857 and Morton Ranch, 1,834.
[Not hard to see the scare tactics going on here. MM]The outlook is more positive on the high school level, where Cinco Ranch and Katy receive relief when Seven Lakes opens. Without its opening, both Katy and Cinco Ranch would have to accommodate more than 6,000 pupils each by 2014. Opening the new high school postpones the construction of high school seven until fall 2011.
[Actually it didn't open until 2013 and then only at half capacity. So much for predictions. MM]Because developers may exceed or fail to meet construction schedules, Guseman conservatively estimated 42,348 additional housing units will be built within the next 10 years and 18,642 within five years.